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If you had told investors a few years back that the Bitcoin price USD would surpass the $100,000 mark, many would probably have called you delusional, but now it’s become a reality. Following the U.S. presidential elections and the reinstatement of Donald Trump, who is an open crypto activist, Bitcoin’s price set off on a meteoric rise that shook the financial world.
As the momentum and the dust begin to settle, speculations begin to form in the minds of many investors—could Bitcoin surge even further to an unprecedented $200,000, or is the market poised for a significant correction?
Here, we’ll touch on the factors that can drive Bitcoin’s price movements for another explosive rally or allow the token to settle toward a new baseline.
Key Factors Fueling Predictions of a $200K Breakout
Adoption of Spot Bitcoin ETFS by Conventional Exchanges
January of 2024 was a game changer for the crypto market. The SEC (Securities and Exchange Commission) finally gave the go ahead for financial institutions to make use of ETFs to draw in more traditional investors to gain access to Bitcoin.
This move resulted in a large influx of capital investment to companies like BlackRock and Fidelity who motioned for the inclusion of ETFs as a tradable asset. One report analyzed that the spot ETFs in the U.S. had already surpassed the amount of BTC held in the wallet of Satoshi Nakamoto– Bitcoin’s elusive creator.
The charts have shown the positive influence of institutional interest ETFs on Bitcoin’s price and should it continue, Bitcoin is sure to press ahead in value.
Bitcoin’s Past Cyclic Patterns
Bitcoin has a surprisingly repetitive 4-year pattern that it has followed since its creation, and recent behaviors suggest that 2025 could align with them. The start of most cycles is a bear market like the one in 2022, where holders accumulated Bitcoin at lesser prices.
The following year the token slowly picks up speed leading up to the periodic halving that happens a year further. This halving reduces the amount of Bitcoin in circulation, creating greater scarcity and shooting up prices.
After this halving which happened last year, 2025 could follow the Bitcoin norm that brings in new investor interest causing price increases. Since the token has diligently followed this path in previous cycles, it’s safe to say 2025 may be no different.
Media Hype and Psychological Momentum
The psyche of investors is a major mover in price fluctuations, one bullish signal is usually enough to increase buying pressure and there have been multiple positive sentiments surrounding Bitcoin in the past year.
Breaking price milestones coupled with other significant events creates a psychological snowball effect that attracts retail investors and media attention, and if it keeps up Bitcoin will maintain its upward trajectory and the hype could continue pushing prices higher.
Headwinds Facing the Continued Bull Run
Profit-Taking by Long-Term Holders
Buying pressure is usually accompanied by an equal selling pressure. As Bitcoin attempts to scale to a new baseline, earlier holders may begin locking in profits. If large-scale sell-offs continue, it can trigger sharp corrections, disrupting bullish momentum.
Rising Interest Rates and Tighter Monetary Policy
If central banks, particularly the U.S. Federal Reserve, maintain or increase interest rates, speculative assets like Bitcoin could face downward pressure. Higher interest rates often reduce risk appetite as investors shift toward safer, yield-generating assets.
Market Exhaustion
With all the FOMO surrounding Bitcoin, its price might rise too quickly without enough support to keep going up. Think of it like running a race—if you sprint too hard early on, you might get tired and need to slow down or take a break.
If the RSI (Relative Strength Index) shows that the bitcoin market is overbought, it could mean the price is rising faster than what’s healthy. When this happens, the excitement can fade, and the price might naturally dip as some investors sell to lock in profits, causing a correction.
Competition
Despite its popularity, Bitcoin isn’t the only cryptocurrency on the market. The crypto space is highly competitive, with numerous altcoins boasting greater utility, speed, or scalability to gain traction that could divert investment away from Bitcoin.
Will Bitcoin Slow Down to a New Baseline?
The price of bitcoin has steadily been on the rise since 2023, as it was able to shoot up from $20,000 to over $73,000 following the launch of the Bitcoin ETFs and eventually beyond $100,000 post-election.
Bitcoin’s current RSI cooled down from a high of 70 to around 54 over the past few weeks despite the steady climb in prices. This could indicate that the imbalance in buying and selling is starting to correct itself, and we could experience a bearish divergence, which could signal a potential exhaustion of buying momentum.
While this rapid growth often creates a resistance level at $100,000 for buyers to break against selling pressure, there’s a higher chance prices might temporarily drop as investors sell to lock in profits.
However, continued hype from influential figures and institutional interest could see Bitcoin have a consistent buying strength above this level and could reinforce the accelerated trend during 2025.
A key price level Bitcoin could settle at if interest cools down would be anywhere within the $70,000 to $90,000 range, where selling activity may concentrate as the price attempts to reach the trend’s floor, and new investors likewise could seek to capitalize before the latest bullish movements.